The Road to Glory: Who’s Actually Favored to Win Women’s Euro 2025?

Spain: The World Champions Leading the Pack

Did you know that Spain, despite being World Cup champions, have never won the Women’s Euros? This shocking fact adds immense pressure to a team that enters Switzerland as the clear tournament favorites. The Opta supercomputer gives La Roja a commanding 24.6% to 27.4% chance of lifting the trophy, making them the bookmakers’ darling at 7/4 odds.

Under coach Montse Tomé, Spain have transformed into an absolute powerhouse, with their squad reading like a who’s who of women’s football. Aitana Bonmatí, the back-to-back Ballon d’Or winner, headlines a Barcelona-heavy roster that includes two-time FIFA Best Women’s Player Alexia Putellas. Their attacking trio of Salma Paralluelo, Claudia Pina, and Mariona Caldentey offers explosive pace and clinical finishing.

Spain’s offensive firepower is simply staggering – they’ve netted 18 goals in just four Nations League games since April. However, the absence of record goalscorer Jenni Hermoso and recent health concerns for Bonmatí, who was hospitalized with viral meningitis, could test their incredible depth. Their historical quarter-final barrier at the last three Euros remains their biggest psychological hurdle.

England: Defending Champions with Everything to Prove

The Lionesses are chasing something extraordinary – becoming only the second team in Women’s Euro history to win back-to-back titles. Germany achieved this feat between 1995 and 2013, but can England match that legendary dominance? Coach Sarina Wiegman brings an absolutely perfect 12-0 record at the Euros, having won six matches with the Netherlands in 2017 and six with England in 2022.

Yet England face mounting challenges that would make even the most optimistic fans nervous. The retirement of Mary Earps, unavailability of Millie Bright, and Fran Kirby’s shocking exclusion have created significant squad upheaval. Their mixed form since the 2022 triumph, including that heartbreaking World Cup final loss to Spain, has raised questions about their championship mentality.

Despite these setbacks, England’s attacking depth remains impressive, with Alessia Russo leading the charge after scoring five competitive goals since April 2024. Opta gives them a 16.1% to 17% chance of retaining their crown, with betting odds at 7/2 reflecting their strong but not overwhelming position.

Germany: The Historical Giants Ready for Redemption

Here’s a mind-blowing statistic: Germany have appeared in nine of 13 Women’s Euro finals, winning eight titles. This makes them the most successful team in tournament history, yet they enter Switzerland not as favorites but as dangerous dark horses. Their 2-1 extra-time loss to England in the 2022 final still stings, but it might just fuel their redemption story.

Under new coach Christian Wück, Germany have shown remarkable resilience after their disappointing 2023 World Cup campaign. Their Olympic bronze medal, earned by defeating Spain, and an unbeaten 2025 record signal a return to championship form. The squad boasts incredible depth in attacking positions, with ten of their twelve midfielders and attackers finding the net this year.

However, defensive question marks remain their Achilles’ heel. Facing Poland, Denmark, and Sweden in Group C, Germany are expected to advance but could face a brutal quarter-final clash with England or France. At 5/1 odds, they represent excellent value for punters who believe in their championship pedigree.

France: The Talented Underdogs Breaking Mental Barriers

France represents the ultimate paradox in women’s football – a team bursting with talent but haunted by their reputation for “choking” in crucial moments. Priced at 9/2, they carry the weight of never having won a major tournament, despite possessing some of the world’s most exciting players. This psychological burden could either crush them or finally liberate them to achieve greatness.

Under new coach Laurent Bonadei, France have made bold decisions that could backfire spectacularly. The absence of veterans Wendie Renard and Eugénie Le Sommer represents a massive gamble, essentially betting on youth over experience. Stars like Kadidiatou Diani, with two goals and three assists in 2025, and Clara Mateo, the French league’s top scorer with 18 goals, carry enormous expectations.

Their placement in the “Group of Death” alongside England, the Netherlands, and Wales makes their path even more treacherous. However, France topped their qualifying group and defeated England in April, proving they can compete with the elite when everything clicks perfectly.

The Group of Death: Where Dreams Die Early

Group D has been dubbed the “Group of Death” for obvious reasons – it features three former European champions and tournament debutants Wales. This group alone could determine the tournament’s eventual winner, with England, France, and the Netherlands all capable of lifting the trophy. The early clash between England and France on July 5 might just be the tournament’s defining moment.

The Netherlands, despite their 2017 triumph, enter as underdogs at 22/1 odds, but their recent form tells a different story. With 19 wins in 26 major tournament matches, they’ve proven their ability to rise to big occasions. Vivianne Miedema’s incredible tally of 99 international goals makes her a constant threat, even if she’s not quite the same player after her knee injury.

Wales, making their debut, represent the ultimate wild card. While they’re massive underdogs, tournament football has taught us that passion and unity can overcome pure talent. Their presence adds an unpredictable element to an already volatile group.

Sweden: The Consistent Contenders Nobody Talks About

At 14/1 odds, Sweden might just be the tournament’s best-kept secret. They’ve reached the semi-finals in four of their last five major tournaments, yet somehow fly under the radar compared to the more glamorous nations. Their 6-1 demolition of Denmark in the Nations League showcased attacking prowess that could trouble any defense.

Veteran Kosovare Asllani leads a squad that perfectly balances experience with emerging talent. Sweden’s ability to consistently overachieve in major tournaments makes them incredibly dangerous, especially when facing pressure-packed opponents like Germany in their group stage clash.

Their tactical discipline and physical approach often frustrate more technical teams, creating the perfect conditions for tournament upsets. Sweden’s pragmatic style might not win style points, but it wins matches when it matters most.

Norway: The Sleeping Giants with Star Power

Norway’s poor Euro 2022 performance created a false narrative about their decline, but their Group A placement offers the perfect redemption opportunity. With superstars like Ada Hegerberg, Caroline Graham Hansen, and Guro Reiten, they possess individual brilliance that can change games instantly.

The key question surrounding Norway isn’t talent – it’s consistency. They’ve shown flashes of brilliance followed by puzzling defeats, creating uncertainty about their true championship potential. Their favorable group draw gives them no excuse for early elimination.

If Norway can harness their star power effectively, they could emerge as genuine dark horses. Their attacking trio alone is capable of scoring against any defense, making them a nightmare matchup for supposedly superior teams.

The Opta Supercomputer’s Bold Predictions

Advanced analytics have revolutionized football predictions, and the Opta supercomputer’s calculations provide fascinating insights into potential outcomes. The system predicts Spain vs. England as the most likely final, with Spain’s superior depth giving them the crucial edge in a championship showdown.

However, these predictions assume perfect conditions and don’t account for football’s beautiful unpredictability. The compact 16-team format creates more opportunities for upsets, especially when tournament pressure affects established favorites differently than emerging contenders.

Germany’s 5/1 odds seem particularly generous considering their historical dominance, while France’s 9/2 pricing reflects both their potential and their mental fragility. These numbers suggest betting markets remain uncertain about the tournament’s ultimate direction.

Key Tactical Battles That Will Shape the Tournament

Spain’s possession-based approach will face its sternest test against England’s high-pressing system, creating a fascinating tactical chess match. Germany’s attacking firepower could exploit France’s defensive vulnerabilities, while Sweden’s physical style might frustrate Spain’s technical players.

Set pieces could prove decisive in tight knockout matches, with teams like England and Germany possessing significant aerial threats. The tournament’s compact schedule also favors squads with superior depth, giving Spain and Germany potential advantages in later rounds.

Individual battles between star players will captivate audiences, with Bonmatí vs. Putellas potentially facing off against England’s midfield creativity. These personal duels often determine tournament outcomes more than tactical systems.

The Pressure Cooker: Mental Strength Under Swiss Lights

Tournament football is as much about mental resilience as technical ability, and Switzerland’s intimate venues will amplify every emotional moment. Spain’s quest to finally conquer Europe creates immense pressure, while England’s desire to repeat their 2022 triumph adds different psychological demands.

France’s historical struggles in major tournaments become even more relevant when facing elimination scenarios. Germany’s championship experience could prove invaluable in pressure moments, while teams like Sweden thrive when expectations are lowered.

The tournament’s compressed timeline means mental fatigue will accumulate quickly, potentially benefiting teams with strong squad rotation capabilities. This factor alone could separate eventual champions from early casualties.

Dark Horse Scenarios: When Underdogs Bite

Tournament football’s greatest appeal lies in its unpredictability, and several scenarios could produce shocking outcomes. Sweden’s tactical discipline combined with Germany’s early elimination could create a path to the final that nobody anticipated.

Norway’s star power, if properly harnessed, could overwhelm more organized but less talented opponents. The Netherlands’ championship experience, despite their underdog status, makes them particularly dangerous in knockout scenarios.

Even debutants Wales possess the passion and unity that have historically troubled established powers. Their placement in the Group of Death might actually work in their favor, removing pressure while providing massive motivation.

The Verdict: Spain’s Tournament to Lose

Despite tournament football’s inherent unpredictability, Spain enters Switzerland as deserved favorites with the deepest squad and most consistent recent form. Their World Cup triumph proved they can handle ultimate pressure, while their Barcelona core provides unmatched chemistry and understanding.

England’s championship experience and Wiegman’s tactical brilliance make them the primary threat, but squad changes and group stage difficulties could derail their title defense. Germany’s historical dominance and recent improvements position them as the most dangerous dark horse.

The tournament’s compact format and quality depth suggest multiple teams could realistically lift the trophy, making Switzerland 2025 potentially the most competitive Women’s Euro in history. What would you have guessed about these surprising championship odds?